A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
